Don’t worry, we hope to deliver positive news and new artists in the new year but for now, meditate on this: More than 10 million of the 13 million tracks available on the internet failed to find a single buyer last year. In other words, a near 90% of digital tracks released in 2008 didn’t sell a copy.
” 80 per cent of all revenue came from around 52,000 tracks and only 173,000 albums were bought out of the 1.23 million available albums.”
This also poses a challenge to ‘The Long Tail Theory’ which suggests “that niche markets were the key to the future for internet sellers and was described as one of the most important economic models of the 21st century when it was spelt out by Chris Anderson in his book The Long Tail in 2006″. (Times Online)
Before you start crying, realize that most digital tracks released are nothing more than digital waste recorded on a mac computer.
Yes, people still purchase music, they just won’t purchase mediocre sound bytes which unfortunately far out numbers great product like Metallica’s ‘Death Magnetic’.
“Before you start crying, realize that most digital tracks released are nothing more than digital waste recorded on a mac computer.”
Exactly, well put. But that also goes along way towards explaining why statistics like that are completely meaningless. The incredibly vast majority of those tracks aren’t even part of the “music industry”, and have no bearing at all on the survivor of the labels/distributors, and there’s not explanation of where they came up with that number, or the methodology for what counts as a track or not.
I’m actually kinda happy to find this out… good to know great music is still rare and generally supported when discovered.
We have about 100 bands in our digital system on SmartPunk.com and only 5 bands bring in about 75% of the digital revenue.
Most bands sell 0 to 20 songs a month in our system. And we only have two bands that can sell EPs/albums continually.
It goes to show that people won’t ‘waste’ .99 cents on something that isn’t good.
This was really eye opening.
Thanks for the post.
Beau Tyler
Rescue Signals
I’m guess I’m lucky cause I sold $50 worth of music through itunes for an album that i’m offering as a free download on my site.
$50 in a year’s time is hardly something to write home about.. but seeing as how I expected to sell nothing… it was alright…
This is why KOAR stresses the need for great artistry. Throwing up your demos on myspace won’t achieve anything. I think artists need to start getting inspired again. We finally hit the dead end, which is a good thing. I noticed that Britney Spears, Taylor Swift, etc are on top of the charts. I am personally not a fan of either artist but they obviously have a legion of fans or at least inspire a segment of a population to download singles, buy records, and attend concerts. Even Britney and Swift aren’t popular like the heyday artists, but they are doing well compared to TODAYS acts. So pop/dance/club beats is dying, but still remain on the top of charts, while the rock genre is as dead as the dinosaurs. Why? because the rock genre doesn’t inspire anybody to buy record nor attend concerts. Why? Because their is no message, songs are weak, and rock bands seem to consist old fat old dudes losing their hair. As tired as it is, at least the rappers and the thugs are talking about the streets.
We need another Bowie, maybe a Billy Idol. Someone that completely incorporates all styles of music. We need another figure head that inspires new artists.
Until then, 90% of digital tracks won’t sell a copy. This is the creative drought, a famine has hit the land. So we wish all the new artists luck in the New Year and Hope the creator of the universe blesses you with originality and ideas!!!!
I just want to throw a brief comment out there that The Long Tail theory should still stand strong, as we haven’t truly seen the realization of a democratized aggregator/filter that Anderson describes as necessary for the long tail. In fact, he specifically describes how iTunes’ recommendations don’t necessarily shift demand down the curve in the way that a truly democratized filter would. So, if anything, these numbers correlate directly to what Anderson suggested.
The suggestions of this article are questionable at best. I would say absurd is a bit closer.
The word “inventory” is practically irrelevant when we’re discussing something like digital music. Because inventory can be added at will with little to no cost or effort, it certainly will, making percentages useless. In a case like this, the size of the head is far less than 20%. The head is the number of albums that get mainstream media attention. Let’s say that’s 300. So, using billboards 10 tracks = 1 album figure, that’s 3,000 tracks. If the 49,000 “tail” tracks outsold the 3,000 “head” tracks, then the theory holds true, that niche markets are growing.
But these figures are questionable at best in terms of debunking the long tail theory because mismanagement of labels has allowed for a black market to develop that far exceeds the legal market. In fact, through litigation & scare tactics, the industry has actually publicized the black market & made it exactly what it is today. And the thing about it is that when people are looking into niche markets, they are far more likely to download that music illegally than to take a chance on something they haven’t heard by buying it legally at a price that doesn’t reflect the true value of digital music (and, in the case of iTunes, is crippled by DRM).
Let’s look at illegal downloads & compare, of what’s been downloaded, the head to the tail. That will show us a more accurate picture of where interest lies.
But inventory is not a part of the equation. End of story.
“As tired as it is, at least the rappers and the thugs are talking about the streets.”
Yes it’s very tired. Even if you are a “street” person… there’s more to that life than what they speak about and try to glorify.
Hip Hop needs more groups like De La Soul and Talib Kweli who are just themselves.
Hip Hop needs more fans willing to purchase music beyond the sterotype.
koar, I am really starting to get the impression that you’re just getting older and holding on to the past. Which is a natural thing.
We need another Bowie? HA! That’s just what we need, someone acting like someone else?
You and Jon Cole seem to have pretty solid ideas of what you think will be great, are you guys developing any acts? I mean working with a band, or musicians to help create music that you feel would be the whole package?
I think its past time to stop pointing fingers.
After reading this, I got curious to see what I’ve sold on iTunes. My album ‘Media Music’ has sold 1,195 downloads/tracks so far. Not too bad, but could have been better.
That 20% number is kinda shocking, though.
Orlando Luckey
On Idolator – good read!
Ah, that must be the problem: no one bought those 10 million tracks because they just weren’t marketed right. If only they had some sort of company that could market and promote them without the artists having to pay them money up front! Or, I guess, if only the artists weren’t so lazy making music and touring and working day jobs when they should be friending people on MySpace.
This should be a huge story for everyone that talks about digital music, because this is exactly the kind of evidence that’s been missing from the debate. We know what major labels do wrong, and we know what people think should be done differently. But we don’t know whether that works. This makes sense, in a way; it’s easy for a blog to reprint a press release for a new company whose model conforms to your ideological expectations, but it’s hard to do the legwork to see if those companies are actually successful months or years down the line. It’s easier just to assume that what you think will work will work, or if it doesn’t, to assume this is due to the big evil major labels manipulating things. But this is not how the world works. If the new model is better, it should be beating the supposedly failed establishment, and if we care about music, we should be asking ourselves honestly if the new model is actually working by checking back on things and assessing their success. If they’re not selling music, then they’re not working. Period.
Much of the new digital economy seems to be new ways to distribute music, not new ways to make music. Widgets that stream, unlimited download services, pop freeganism, yes; but the content is supposed to make itself magically. In creating our new model, we’ve taken the myth for the truth, assumed that the heroic lone artist is how music actually get made, when of course, it’s not. A single artist can always make music on their own, for free. But that’s not how most music gets made, and without an actual revenue stream, which can only come from selling music (even if the “long tail” exists, at that end of it no one would be able to actually turn a profit from touring), then all of that is lost.
I’m curious as to who thinks the “long tail” theory can be measured in one year. That defeats the purpose of the long tail.. if it could be measured in a one year span then yeah, we’re all in trouble.
Take the long tail over years (as I think most would for ‘niche’ markets) and then let’s talk about it failing.
With all that said, I agree 100% that the better the music, the better the sales. No brainer.
Lots of great comments, but I think everyone is missing the scariest point of all.
85% of all albums did not sell a SINGLE copy all year.
Not a SINGLE copy means that the artist or band did not even purchase their own album.
Not a SINGLE copy means the artist’s Mom did not purchase the album.
This is more astounding than any debunking of the Long Tail. This is simply pathetic.
“Not a SINGLE copy means that the artist or band did not even purchase their own album.
Not a SINGLE copy means the artist’s Mom did not purchase the album.”
Wow. Never looked at it that way.
The death of music is the fact that artist and labels are looking for the next hit single and not the next complete innovative inspiring album. They figure since they can’t sell full albums they can bank on itunes downloads. The industry has went back to the days when a gold record was a huge achievement. We as artist and execs need to push for complete records, a hot single is jus an advertisement for your album and should reflect the content of said record
very true, not even the Grandma could stomach the recordings..
Mondogarage’s comment that “[t]he incredibly vast majority of those tracks aren’t even part of the “music industry”, and have no bearing at all on the survivor of the labels/distributors” is by far the most reasonable thing that’s been said in these comments. There’s nothing keeping anyone from booting up Garage Band, laying down some acoustic tracks, & sending them to iTunes through CDBaby. Who gives a fuck about any of that?
What’s being said here is “since there’s no barrier for entry into music retail (in terms of inventory), the long tail theory is wack.” If every citizen of the Republic of Ghana recorded a record & had it on iTunes tomorrow afternoon, that wouldn’t change a thing.
The tail, in practical terms, is the non-mainstream (i.e. niche) tracks within those 52,000 that did sell, whether it’s 45,000, 49,000, 51,000, or whatever.
It’s amazing how far some people will stretch a figure just to hang onto the old way of doing things.
Certainly makes me feel better about my poor digital sales
, but then again, my singles were released at the end of 08.
It also makes me feel a little bit better knowing that even though my singles are being sold for a pathetic 99 cents, it didn’t cost me an obscene amount to record/mix/master them. Point is, while digital music has made it harder to sell albums (as opposed to singles), it has also made it a hell of a lot cheaper to record those albums…so in theory, it should balance out. The key words there being “in theory”
In the words of Bobby Bird “As far as rock as concerned we’re in a pussy period…A Pussy period is when the music sounds like it’s being made by a guy who was breast fed to the age of twelve, playing a $20,000 guitar with mittens on, while the sound engineer squeezes his balls with one hand and cools them with a chinese fan with the other”
I don’t know how thats relevant, but i sure do think it’s funny.
Thanks for the post. My band sells $30-$150 a month in singles/albums on iTunes. Put in perspective, it gives me hope!
…I’m guessling, Elizabeth, that $150 is an outlier. Statistically, your range is too large to be reasonably sustainable. Have you tried to match revenues against # of shows or advertisements and how each effort has affected sales? Hope is great. Hope gets a 4 year senator into the White House…but it still won’t sell your records. Hard work will.
well if people cant sell singles, they should not be trying to sell albums. Think about it, If people arent really interested in one of your song, why would they be in 10? Marketing plays a better part in if a artist or band fails than music, that will never change. All the uknown artist are just throwing music out there and it is not sticking! In my opinion, these bands artist should focus on making one or 2 GREAT SONGS that can be enjoyed and understood by a majority of people and spend the rest of the money marketing those. Spending all the money on the music and then having people not know about it is a waste. As bad as the labels are, They know what they are doing when it comes to marketing. And yes marketing is changing.
Agreed MikelMarion. Marketing is key and singles sell albums. If you don’t have a hot single, you sure as hell don’t have an album!